The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by some of the most challenging settings in the world for food insecurity. MENA is the only region in which that number of hungry people has doubled since the early 1990s. Figures are indicate that 33 million people lack access to adequate nutrition. Furthermore, 18% of the children under 5 are developmentally stunted which is an indicator of malnutrition. At the same time, the prevalence of obesity has increased significantly in the same period due to the unhealthy food habits and dietary patterns. The harsh climate conditions in the region have always been a challenge to food security, and the extreme weather events in the coming years will only increase scarcity.
The Threat of Climate Change
Food security in MENA must be understood within a network of challenges relating to water scarcity, increased rates of urbanization, and population growth, as well as disparities in economic growth and job opportunities. While the region is struggling with food insecurity, there are different factors across different countries. In addition, ongoing conflicts and refugee crises (which may also be related to climate change) further complicate the context and exacerbate these challenges.
Climate change induced events are predicted to permanently alter the region, increasing food insecurity. Trends relating to the warmer temperatures, more frequent and more intense heat extremes and droughts, as well as additional stresses on already scarce water resources are evident. These occurrences have already significant impact on the food security in the MENA region. According to projections, these patterns will intensify in the near future, thus increasing the vulnerabilityof the region. Indeed, climate change is expected to affect many different aspects of food security.
Food Security
The Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food security as a state in which
“all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
This definition addresses different dimensions of food security, including availability access, stability, and efficient utilization of food supplies.
Analysis of food insecurity must be framed within this nexus, which I will describe in more detail. I aim is to provide holistic understanding of the food security issues relating to climate change and how these vulnerabilities intersect with other sources of risk, such as population growth, urbanization, and conflict.
Agriculture
Food availability is generally determined by the supply, which is related to production, storage, and exchange. Weather, yields, soil conditions, and planting decisions have the most prominent impact on production. Rain-fed agriculture is likely to be the most affected by reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, resulting in reduced yields, reduced soil fertility and increased production costs. Considering that 70% of the MENA region agricultural sector is rain-fed, it is highly vulnerable to climate change events. Furthermore, frequent droughts will exacerbate the processes of land degradation and desertification.
Another concern for agricultural production is water availability. Water is of essential importance to food production and food security. MENA appears to be the most water-scarce region in the world. The region has undertaken significant investments in irrigation systems and uses the highest proportion of available water compared to any other region in the world. Over the last 50 years, per capita water availability has decreased by two-thirds. According to FAO, achieving food self-sufficiency in MENA would require 468 billion cubic meters of water, but available water in the region is estimated around 574 billion cubic meters.
The challenges agricultural sector is facing relating to the water scarcity can to large extent be attributed to the climate change. However, there are various solutions through which these issues can be tackled. For instance, concept of green water is considered to have a great potential in overcoming water-scarcity related challenges in agriculture. The amount of organic matter present in the soil can be increased through cover crops and no-till practices. Organic matter promotes a healthier soil with more soil aggregates and larger pore spaces. This structure in turn helps soil to distribute water more effectively. In addition to green water, significant attention is paid towards the reusing wastewater for food production or utilizing systems for obtaining desalinated water.
Agriculture accounts for more than 35% of the region’s population employment, most of which live in the rural setting. Thus, sustaining their livelihoods will depend significantly on the efforts to build resilience to the environmental shocks as well as to improve the access to adequate techniques and technologies. For instance, vertical farming based on hydroponic systems for growing water-intensive crops could become the important solution since it doesn’t require soil and consequently its reducing water usage. However, these innovations likely require policy adjustments and government incentives.
Urbanization
It is expected that heat extremes will negatively impact labour productivity, which will decrease incomes and consequently limit the ability to purchase food. In terms of food utilization, increased temperatures will undermine food safety. Moreover, displacement driven by climate extremes and disasters are expected to increase difficulties in accessing food. Urbanization, a growing trend in MENA and around the world, will compound issues of food access, stability, and utilization. Urbanization is a migration issue, which has strong linkages to many of the outcomes of climate change. Hence, it is of essential importance to address how climate vulnerabilities intersect with these issues and consequently contribute to food insecurity.
The MENA region has experienced a development boom in the last few decades, followed by rapid population growth. This was accompanied by rapid urbanization. Official reports claim that urban sanitation coverage is above 90% for almost all MENA countries. However, several studies in different MENA countries implies that the correct rates of sanitation coverage are significantly below 90%. This misalignment of results can be attributed to the vague definition across countries of what is considered urban area.
Discrepancies related to the classification of the urban areas reveals that areas classified as rural in official statistics are actually new urban areas – either new rural towns or informal areas in large cities. To make this point clear, in Egypt, for instance, settlements of 10,000 people are considered rural. This therefore implies that around 65% of Greater Cairo’s population live in informal areas. Hence, as informal urban areas in MENA continue to grow, the delivery of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services will be an important component of strengthening food security.
In countries with high child mortality rates, diarrhea accounts for more deaths in children under five than any other cause of death – more than malaria and HIV and AIDS combined. In fact, child underweight or developmental stunting causes about 20% of all mortality of children younger than 5 years. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 50 percent of malnutrition is associated with repeated diarrhea or intestinal worm infections as a result of unsafe water, inadequate sanitation, or insufficient hygiene.
High environmental loads of fecal bacteria are resulting in episodic bouts of diarrhea and immune responses which are reducing the metabolisation of food in the gut. This results in the emergence of the vicious cycle between diarrhea and undernutrition. Children with diarrhea eat less and are less able to absorb the nutrients from their food whereas undernourished children are more likely to get diarrhea when exposed to poor sanitation conditions. In this regard, the importance of water supply, sanitation and hygiene to nutritional security is crucial in efforts to tackle child malnutrition.
Conflict
In conflict affected areas, such as Yemen, Syria, Palestine, Iraq and Sudan, physical insecurity is the main factor affecting the food security and climate vulnerabilities.
Along with drought, conflict is a key driver of forced migration in the region: the Syrian conflict has resulted in more than 5.5 million refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, and more than 6 million internally displaced people. Refugee camps have expanded to the extent that some could be considered new urban areas. These areas are highly exposed to the impacts of flash flooding and heat waves.
For instance, flooding in the refugee camps in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley during 2019 caused immense damage, thus significantly undermining access to and stability of food supply for the population living in the camp. Moreover, frequent flooding in Zaattari camp in Jordan poses a major challenge to those trying to maintain the sanitation, hygiene and living standards of refugees living in Za’atari camp.
In order to approach the climate change induced food security, it is of paramount importance to acknowledge the climate change-food security nexus. However, it is of equal importance to address indirect impacts of climate change on some of the most prominent drivers of food insecurity such as population growth, urbanization and conflict.
About the Author
Karlo Dukic is a Junior Officer in the TPM/Research Department at Trust. He is currently studying a master’s degree in Global Development at the University of Copenhagen. His special areas of interests are agricultural development, food security, environmental governance, and migration.
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